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I would like a working mathematical model which simulates whether a team will Pass or Run in NFL matches. As far as I understand it, this can be derived from a teams' previous run/pass ratio (previous season/last three matches assuming same team), opponent's stats?, the score, distance to goal (and distance to first down if on third down) and time remaining in the game. In addition, I would like to know the % chance of an event happening on any single play.
Simply put, I want a model where in the future, a match is ongoing..we know the score, the time, the teams and the distance to goal/first down and the model tells us the % chance of whether the team will pass it or throw it and the % chance of an event happening such as TD, sack, 5 yard gain etc.