Excel spread sheet to calculate probability of profit - repost

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I have a stock market trading system that I want some further analysis down on.

I want to know how many trades will be required before I make a profit.

I will provide a list of trades with open date, close date, open price and close price.(can provide more info if required)

What I need to be able to do:

1. Input a date and see what the P&L would be if I started trading at that particular date.

2. How many trades it took before I showed a profit.

3. Calculate what is the minimum number of trades starting at any date before a profit was seen.

4. See what the total return was for the period shown

5. Show the P&L in a chart


1. The trade list contains about 1600 trades but at any one time I can only have 20 trades open.

2. Starting capital will be $100,000 and 5% will be allocated on each trade.

2. Once I have bought the first 20 trades nothing is done until one is sold.

3. Once one is sold the next trade (in date order) is bought. This means we could skip 30 trades before a new one can be bought as we were fully invested prior.

Attached are two files.

1. Shows positions. These are the open and close of the trade on the same line.

2. Shows trades. This is each buy/sell as it happened in date order. Each line shows a buy or a sell.

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