I am working on a forecasting model for a re-order point/max replenishment system for a manufacturing company in the US.
The sales trends have many components, including seasonality factors (influenced strongly by weather) and individual store or regional growth/decline by product type which has some correlation with the housing market growth, etc.
My model needs to account for less than 5% stockouts on the premise of a weekly to bimonthly store replenishment cycle.
Additionally, the volume of product on hand needs to cover an estimated baseline demand.
The upper bound constraint of inventory is that annualized inventory turns must be 6 or higher. Additionally, geographical regions have a target inventory supply based on predicted sales in a monthly time frame.
I can provide examples of product types and sales trends along with average lead times for shipment to store locations.
Typical formulas that have been used are weighted moving averages, in conjunction with growth trends and seasonality. A regression model would be useful, but I do not have sufficient market and correlational data to build a regression model at this point.
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