I'm a poker player and I have 2 questions I need help with. It will take 1.5-2 hours. This is for my personal calculations so the budget's not too high but I figured I'd need a couple of hours from a professional statistician to put these equations together and provide an explanation, so I'm setting the budget at $10-30, but if you're exceptionally well-suited for this kind of work I'd be willing to pay more. I am summarizing the questions below to give a general sense of what is required, but I am including links to videos which detail the task and need to be watched in order to understand the scope of what is needed.
[url removed, login to view]!AkRxtEkrBxzQoZYHr3NLY7ITGSCF8Q
1. I have poker statistics on the population by two-card hand (AA, KK, QQ...etc)-this is data on the player pool at the level I play. The data I have is for only the portion of hands that didn't result in a fold, and I need to put together formulas in excel to make inferences about the way these unseen hands were distributed across his range of possible two-card hands.
2. When playing against a single opponent, I have to use Bayesian inference to determine the frequencies with which he plays hands as a function of the population. This is fairly straightforward for aggregate statistics (e.g. the frequency with which he opens with a raise) but I'm not sure how to make inferences about the way it affects the distribution of his range. Using the population's distribution of hands as a basis, I want to know A) how to adjust this distribution for unseen hands (those resulting in a fold) and B) how to adjust this distribution for known hands (those resulting in showdown on the final round of betting).