we will explore some descriptive questions about ethnicity and conflict, using data
from Bosnia-Herzegovina, drawn from Weidmann, Nils B. 2011. “Violence ‘from Above’ or ‘from
Below’? The Role of Ethnicity in Bosnia’s Civil War”, Journal of Politics 73(4): 1178-1190.
We have two versions of this dataset:
The first version of the dataset is a simple text file called “[url removed, login to view]”, where the fields are separated
The second version of the data comes in three different files, [url removed, login to view]”, “[url removed, login to view]”, and
“[url removed, login to view]”. These data include information on the geographical shapes and positions of the different
districts in Bosnia, in addition to the variables. This format is called a shapefile, and is a common format
for GIS software such as ArcGIS. We will use this version to create maps of the Bosnia data later.
You can find these files on Moodle.
The data include observations for 109 Bosnian municipalities. The variables in the data are listed below:
SP_ID Spatial polygon ID
MUNID Municipality ID code
TOTINCOME Income of municipality in 1991
TOTPOP91 Population of municipality in 1991
roadlength Length of roads in district
area Area of municpality
distserbia Distance from Serbia
distcroati Distance from Croatia
KILLED Number of people killed in war
MISSING Number of people reported missing
pol_local Residential polarization index
strat91 Territorial contestation index
roaddensity Road density
[url removed, login to view] log10 distance to Serbia
[url removed, login to view] log10 distance to Croatia
borderdist distance to border
BORDER Border municipality
MOSLEMS91 Muslim population in 1991
SERBS91 Serb population in 1991
CROATS91 Croat population in 1991
MOSLEMS01 Muslim population in 2001
SERBS01 Serb population in 2001
CROATS01 Croat population in 2001
(1) Using the Bosnia 1991 population shares at the municipality level, compute a measure of ethnic
fractionalization for each municipality according to the # ELF formula: ELF = 1-sum_i(s_i^2), where
sum_i is the sum over all groups, and s_i is the share of the respective group. Save your result in a new
variable called ELF91. Draw a histogram of the distribution, and comment on what this tells us about the
pre-war ethnic population distribution.
(2) Now find the ELF for municipalities in 2001 using the appropriate population figures in the dataset.
Present and discuss the changes in ethnic fractionalization between 1991 and 2001. How has the overall
distribution changed overall for the countries, and what districts have changed the most?
(3) Are the population changes related to conflict experience?
(Hint: one way to do this is to create a plot of change in ELF by death rates, and use linear regression to
estimate the “average” impact of the death rate on changes in ELF. Lab 4 provides some examples).
(4) Examine the variation in the death rate (i.e., casualties per capita) across municipalities, using linear
regression and two measures developed by Weidmann (2011), “residential polarization” and “territorial
contestation”, controlling for per capita income. Comment on the results.
You will need to create a per capita income measure yourself, dividing income by population. To facilitate
interpretation, here is how the two ethic geography measures were created. See the cited articles for more
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