I am looking for an expert who an use the @Risk software using Excel and perform some analysis on stock market data.
1. The Excel workbook provides returns on the Dow Jones Index futures contract from 3/14/2024
to 2/28/2025. (In practice the market value of the Mini Dow is $5 per tick, but we will just use
the index as provided)
a. Provide an excel graph of index values over time.
b. Using distribution fitting, what is the Best-Fit distribution? Provide a graphic of the Best
Fit distribution .
c. Explain in words what the (statistical or modeling) costs would be between using the
best-fit distribution and the theoretical log-normal distribution.
d. As a modeler and financial economist what is the best rationale for using the lognormal
distribution?
e. Compute the log (natural log) change of DOW index values over its entire range. Fit
these data to a distribution. What distribution would you expect to find, and is it
consistent with theory?
f. From e, using excel functions for average and standard deviation calculate the
annualized mean drift (multiply average by 250 days) and volatility (multiply standard
deviation by sqrt(250)) (Recall that because you use daily data the average is the daily
average return and standard deviation is standard deviation for a daily change).
g. What does the term ‘drift rate mean in economic terms?
h. What does the term ‘volatility’ mean in economic terms?
2. Go to Q2 DOW tab. In finance a random walk on prices is typically described by the following
process ( ) ( ) 2 .5 0,1
1
tN t P Pe t t
µσ σ − +
= −
Where µ is the drift or periodic growth of the process in years, σ is the annualized volatility
(standard deviation) of the percentage change, N ( ) 0,1 is a standard normal deviate or
RiskNormal(0,1) , and t is percent of year (e.g for 1 day t=1/250, 1 week t=1/52, 1 month t=1/12 and
so on). This is slightly different than the example used in class which was always for 1/250.
a) Using the two parameters computed in 1(f) generate a 250 day random walk assuming
geometric Brownian motion starting with 39,548 (which is the first futures value in DOW data)
and generating the walk for each day in the provided series. Provide a graph with the original
prices for 1st 250 days (in Column B), as well as 3 randomly generated price series from Column
C (e.g. hit F9 (recalculation) 3 times, copy and paste the randomly generated numbers as values;
create graph). Provide some commentary about what you observe in this graph and the use of
Monte Carlo simulation.
b) Build three simulations similar to part (a) but for 52 periods (i.e. weekly) using t = 1/52th of a
year (in cell B4) , monthly using t=1/12th of a year, and yearly t=1.0. For day 250, week 52,
month 12, and 1 year, provide the overlay graph of the probability distributions. Report the
mean, standard deviation and skewness. What do you observe? What does this say about time
scaling in random walk models? (Hint: in spreadsheet the last period in time series should
populate as output in cells F2:F5.)
c) Using the weekly model Provide a Summary Graph. Does this graph show the classical linear-invariance property? Explain your response. Include an illustration of the variance ratio (Hint:
compute the log change in index relative to week 1, add to output, take ratio of variance of
week k to week 1.)
3. The current price of the May 2025 corn futures contract traded on the CME was $4.69/bushel
Assume that the futures contract expires in 54 calendar days or 40 trading days. For futures
contracts the drift rate is assumed to be zero (0) when used to price put and call options (this is
because of certain arbitrage arguments). The annualized implied volatility of corn futures is
21.5% or 0.215. The current interest rate for discounting is 4.20%. The actual prices for Put and
Call options on March 2, 2025 are reported in the worksheet. (These are actually American
options which have an early exercise feature, but we will assume they are European style
options exercisable on day 40 only. Generally speaking American call options are closer to
European prices while put prices are typically higher because early exercise feature is more valuable)
And a few more tasks...
Task is quite urgent. Need immediate analysis.
With a solid background in finance and accounting paired with extensive experience in using Excel for various financial analysis purposes, I am confident that I have the skills to provide exceptional insights in your stock market analysis project.
My proficiency in using @Risk software for modeling and distribution fitting aligns perfectly with your needs, particularly when determining the best-fit distribution for the Dow Jones Index futures contract data. Moreover, my experience with data analytics and financial modeling allows me to generate accurate random walk simulations using the provided parameters, offering you a comprehensive view of potential price movements.
Furthermore, my expertise in financial reporting and compliance ensures that your results will be aligned with industry standards and meet any regulatory requirements. My ability to conduct risk assessments and identify possible internal control improvements can also greatly contribute to this project's quality and robustness. I'm excited about the possibility of bringing both my skill set and enthusiasm for finance to this project, and delivering precise analyses that can aid your decision-making process.
With proficiency in Excel, I'm well-equipped to tackle your project and leverage @Risk software for the stock market analysis required. I have extensive experience handling large datasets, building advanced financial models and conducting complex statistical analysis using Excel. As an added bonus, my skills in Python and MATLAB will come in handy whenever necessary, ensuring a well-rounded approach to your data analysis needs.
My understanding of distribution fitting is especially relevant here. I can determine the Best-Fit distribution for you using your Dow Jones Index futures contract data in excel, and present the results visually for easy comprehension. Additionally, as a person well-versed in both finance and modeling domains, I can effectively explain the implications of various approaches, such as the costs incurred by deviating from theoretical log-normal distributions, or the rationale for choosing the log-normal distribution itself.
As a multi-talented marketing professional with a profound background in financial analysis, I am well-equipped to handle your project that combines analytical skills and software proficiency. My years of experience in market research lends me the expertise to skillfully handle the analysis of stock market data using Excel bolstered by the renowned @Risk software. Moreover, my familiarity with data visualization will come in handy in generating the graph you need of index values over time.
On a more comprehensive level, my grasp of finance, modeling and statistics, as well as my dedication to accuracy, will ensure that I effectively meet the demands of all subsections of your project. Not only can I provide the best-fit distribution using distribution fitting on the returns of Dow Jones Index for you, but I can also explain intricacies such as the statistical costs between the best-fit distribution and theoretical log-normal distribution. This understanding comes from my qualification and practice as a financial economist
As an experienced professional with advanced Excel skills, I am confident that I can tackle your project with precision and expertise. Having spent considerable time working with complex financial models and analyzing stock market data, I understand the nuances involved in extracting meaningful insights from such datasets. Specifically, my knowledge and expertise in @Risk software for Excel aligns perfectly with your project requirements.
Finally, let's talk about Monte Carlo simulation – another area where I excel. My experience in conducting precise simulations and providing insightful interpretations of the resulting data will prove invaluable in uncovering significant patterns and trends within your stock market data. In conclusion, by choosing me for your project you not only get a skilled Excel user but also a passionate financial analyst who genuinely enjoys working with large datasets to provide valuable information for businesses like yours. Finally, my commitment to delivering high-quality work within agreed-upon deadlines ensures both efficiency and reliability throughout our collaboration.
I’m an experienced data analyst with a solid background in Excel-based financial modeling, Monte Carlo simulations, and risk analysis using @Risk. I can help you conduct a detailed stock market analysis based on the Dow Jones Index futures contract, as outlined in your brief. My approach will include:
Accurate graphing of index values and distribution fitting
Clear comparison between best-fit and theoretical log-normal models
Statistical explanation of drift rate and volatility
Simulated random walk models using geometric Brownian motion
Comparative probability distributions over different timeframes
Option pricing logic based on futures contracts and volatility
You’ll get well-documented Excel files with graphs, formulas, and step-by-step explanations. I can start immediately and ensure timely delivery.
I am a bachelor of mathematics with a strong foundation in data analysis and modeling, particularly in financial and statistical contexts. My academic and professional experiences have equipped me to tackle complex problems involving large datasets and sophisticated models.
I have extensive experience using Excel and add-ins like @Risk for advanced simulations and statistical analysis. I have previously worked on projects requiring:
Fitting distributions and analyzing their implications.
Applying geometric Brownian motion for stock price modeling.
Performing Monte Carlo simulations and interpreting their results.
Calculating drift and volatility for financial indices.
For your project, I can provide:
• Comprehensive analysis of the Dow Jones Index data, including detailed responses to all questions in the task.
• High-quality visualizations and interpretations to support the results.
• Clear and concise explanations of financial concepts like drift rate, volatility, and their economic implications.
Given the urgency of this task, I am ready to prioritize your project and deliver results within your required timeline. I would be happy to share examples of similar work I have completed.
Looking forward to the opportunity to collaborate on this exciting project.
Hello!
I am a dedicated and detail-oriented freelancer with strong skills in Data Entry and Excel tasks. I have hands-on experience in:
✔ Accurate and fast data entry
✔ Excel spreadsheet management
✔ Data cleaning & formatting
✔ Copy-paste jobs
✔ Creating reports and organizing data professionally
Client satisfaction is always my priority, and I ensure the timely delivery of high-quality work. I would love to assist you with this project. Let’s discuss this further — I’m ready to start immediately!
Looking forward to working with you!
Thanks & Regards,
SAHIL KHAN
Hello,
With 8+ years of experience in full-stack development, I’ve worked on diverse projects involving mobile apps, web platforms, and API integrations. I understand how to translate business needs into scalable, high-performing solutions.
You’re looking for a streamlined, tailored system that not only solves a specific problem but does it reliably and efficiently. I’ve handled similar setups and know how to deliver exactly what you're expecting.
✔ I’ll start by identifying the core issue and planning a clean, custom solution.
⭐ My focus will be on building features that actually add value—no bloat, just performance.
✅ I’ll map out clear stages (design ➝ dev ➝ test ➝ deploy) and keep you involved.
✔ I work solo but tap into trusted experts (UI, testing) if needed.
⭐ I offer fair pricing—based on effort, not fluff. No surprises.
✅ Risks like delays or bugs are handled early with real-time debugging and clean code.
✔ I keep comms open—chat anytime, updates always on time.
Let’s connect via chat and go over your ideas—I’m ready when you are.
Best regards,
Mamta Dhakad ?
Hello! I am a designer and video editor with a three-dimensional knowledge of working in Adobe programs.
I specialize in professional video editing, motion design, infographics and visual content that really works. If you need a clear and creative approach to video editing or graphics, I am ready to help!
What do I mean:
Motion graphics (Motion Design)
Dynamic titles and animations
Infographics that explain more simply
Stylish editing with rhythm, music and composition
Worked with After Effects, Premiere Pro, Illustrator, Photoshop
Why me?
3 fatalities in commercial and creative projects
Get it ready before making changes
I express it quickly and clearly, with respect to the details
I will be working on both my current projects and long-term projects. Write to me - let's discuss how I can help you!
Hi there,
I’d love to support you with this project involving Risk software and Excel-based stock market analysis. I’ve worked on a similar project that involved modeling stock returns using Risk, fitting distributions, calculating log returns, simulating geometric Brownian motion, and building dashboards that provide clear financial insights.
I’m confident in my ability to:
Fit and visualize statistical distributions in Risk
Use Excel for calculating log changes, drift, and volatility
Generate and compare Monte Carlo simulations across different time scales
Analyze futures pricing and build visuals to clearly present findings
Deliver high-quality visualizations and commentary to guide decision-making
Just to clarify before we begin:
Would you prefer the report in a structured Excel file only, or should I also include a written summary of the analysis and interpretations in a separate document (like a PDF)?
Looking forward to working with you on this!
Best regards,
As a Data Entry Specialist with proficiency in Excel, I possess the strong data handling skills necessary to successfully tackle your stock market analysis project. Throughout my career, I have honed my ability to manage and organize extensive volumes of information with accuracy and efficiency - making me the perfect candidate for this numbers-heavy endeavour.
I'm adept at using various features in Excel such as graphing, distribution fitting, average/std deviation calculation and other statistical functions. These skills would enable me to provide you not only with the graph of index values over time as well as the best-fit distribution graphic but also the rationale behind using log-normal distribution. My firm understanding of economic terms like 'drift rate' and 'volatility' will ensure thorough and insightful analysis of your market data - providing you invaluable information for decision making.
Lastly, in regards to Monte Carlo simulation, I'm well versed in this technique, which is crucial for random walk modelling. By generating multiple number series based on computed parameters, I will provide you with a comprehensive assessment of price probability distributions, mean values, standard deviations and skewness. So if quality work that meets deadlines is what you're after, I'm ready to put my exceptional data entry abilities to work for you on this project!
Hello,
I'm a detail-oriented and reliable freelancer with a strong commitment to delivering high-quality work on time. I adapt quickly to project requirements and always aim to understand the core goal behind each task. Whether it's a short-term gig or a longer collaboration, I bring focus, clear communication, and dedication to every job I take on.
If selected, you can expect:
Timely and transparent updates
Meticulous attention to detail
A proactive, solution-focused approach
I'm ready to begin immediately and would be happy to discuss any specific needs you have. Looking forward to contributing to your project.
Best regards,
Gülçin
